The latest climate change evidence update on storms and waves has now been published by MCCIP.
This update, led by Dr Lucy Bricheno, from the National Oceanography Centre in Liverpool, indicates that more very severe winter storms will cross over the UK and Ireland in the future.
The newest climate models are generally able to consistently predict storm tracks, showing an increase in large and intense wintertime storms and a greater likelihood of successive storms and compound events. High-impact and low-likelihood events, such as the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), could strengthen the storm track and winter westerly winds over the North Atlantic. The models also show that even a gradual weakening of the AMOC could lead to stronger storms and larger storm surges. However, it is important to note that there is still considerable uncertainty regarding future changes to North Atlantic storms, much of which are driven by natural variability rather than long-term climate change.
The key ‘takehome messages’ are summarised on the MCCIP storms and waves evidence review page, which also contains a link to the updated review paper.
